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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 3 at the 12

San Francisco 49ers 3 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 9-P.Dawson 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +2.48 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.48 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 12, worth +0.04 EP
KICK +2.26 EP
What Happened
  • 95% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.41 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 22, worth -0.62 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model