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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 2 at the 60

Carolina Panthers 7 – Seattle Seahawks 10

What Actually Happened

(5:13) 8-B.Nortman punts 49 yards to SEA 11, Center-44-J.Jansen. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 11 for no gain (33-T.Boston). PENALTY on SEA-83-R.Lockette, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 5 yards, enforced at SEA 11.

The Three Options

GO -0.37 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.83 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 60, worth -3.53 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.79 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 19, worth -0.79 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP