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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 1 at the 37

Carolina Panthers 7 – Seattle Seahawks 10

What Actually Happened

(:58) 79-C.Scott reported in as eligible. 1-C.Newton pass incomplete deep right to 88-G.Olsen (29-E.Thomas).

The Three Options

GO +1.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.23 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 37, worth -1.45 EP
KICK +0.39 EP
  • 58% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.32 EP
  • 42% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 46, worth -2.26 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model