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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 2 at the 55

Seattle Seahawks 10 – Carolina Panthers 7

What Actually Happened

(:37) 9-J.Ryan punts 40 yards to CAR 15, Center-49-C.Gresham, fair catch by 19-T.Ginn.

The Three Options

GO +0.20 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +1.83 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 55, worth -1.97 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.28 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 16, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP