Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 12 at the 68

Carolina Panthers 0 – Seattle Seahawks 0

(12:07) 8-B.Nortman punts 47 yards to SEA 21, Center-44-J.Jansen. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 31 for 10 yards (55-D.Mayo).

The Three Options

GO -2.27 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.05 EP
69% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 68, worth -4.20 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model