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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 8 at the 78

Seattle Seahawks 20 – Carolina Panthers 14

What Actually Happened

(2:46) 9-J.Ryan punts 60 yards to CAR 18, Center-49-C.Gresham. 19-T.Ginn to CAR 29 for 11 yards (82-L.Willson).

The Three Options

GO -2.25 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.49 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 78, worth -4.44 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -1.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 35, worth -1.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model