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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 3 at the 73

Carolina Panthers 14 – Seattle Seahawks 23

What Actually Happened

(10:13) 8-B.Nortman punts 43 yards to SEA 30, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

The Three Options

GO -1.19 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.37 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 73, worth -4.18 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.46 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 31, worth -1.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model