Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 18 at the 68

Seattle Seahawks 23 – Carolina Panthers 20

(2:29) 9-J.Ryan punts 68 yards to end zone, Center-49-C.Gresham, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.97 EP

24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +1.52 EP
76% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 68, worth -3.09 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model