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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 5 at the 5

Chicago Bears 10 – Detroit Lions 14

What Actually Happened

(4:54) 9-R.Gould 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-T.Gafford, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +2.13 EP
  • 36% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.22 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 5, worth -0.18 EP
KICK +2.21 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.28 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 21, worth -0.68 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model