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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 9 at the 79

Detroit Lions 21 – Chicago Bears 13

What Actually Happened

(9:43) 6-S.Martin punts 55 yards to CHI 24, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 80-M.Mariani to CHI 32 for 8 yards (50-T.Lewis).

The Three Options

GO -2.37 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.48 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 79, worth -4.49 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -1.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 36, worth -1.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model