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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 4 at the 13

Detroit Lions 24 – Chicago Bears 31

What Actually Happened

(2:50) 5-M.Prater 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +1.73 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +4.98 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 13, worth -0.46 EP
KICK +2.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.26 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 23, worth -0.79 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model