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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 2 at the 60

Miami Dolphins 17 – Tennessee Titans 3

What Actually Happened

(8:58) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 47 yards to TEN 13, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 22-D.McCluster.

The Three Options

GO -0.35 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.10 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 60, worth -3.41 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.84 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 19, worth -0.84 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EP