Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 12 at the 69

Tennessee Titans 3 – Miami Dolphins 24

What Actually Happened

(4:03) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 61 yards to MIA 8, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 14-J.Landry to TEN 41 for 51 yards (59-W.Woodyard). PENALTY on MIA-49-Z.Vigil, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 7 yards, enforced at MIA 14.

The Three Options

GO -1.81 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.28 EP
67% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 69, worth -3.85 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model