Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 20 at the 88

Miami Dolphins 24 – Tennessee Titans 10

What Actually Happened

(13:26) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 39 yards to TEN 49, Center-92-J.Denney. 22-D.McCluster to MIA 37 for 14 yards (31-M.Thomas). PENALTY on MIA-42-S.Paysinger, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at MIA 37.

The Three Options

GO -3.60 EP

23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.32 EP
77% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 88, worth -5.08 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model