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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 2 at the 53

Tennessee Titans 10 – Miami Dolphins 31

What Actually Happened

(6:05) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass incomplete short right to 83-H.Douglas (21-B.Grimes).

The Three Options

GO +0.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.20 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 53, worth -2.57 EP
KICK -1.54 EP
  • 18% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.12 EP
  • 82% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -2.36 EP
PUNT -0.63 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 15, worth -0.63 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model