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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 8 at the 12

Miami Dolphins 7 – Tennessee Titans 3

What Actually Happened

(:11) (Field Goal formation) 3-A.Franks 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-4-M.Darr.

The Three Options

GO +1.13 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.80 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 12, worth -0.63 EP
KICK +1.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 22, worth -1.29 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model