Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 20 at the 67

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – New York Giants 7

What Actually Happened

(13:54) 8-D.Jones punts 57 yards to NYG 10, Center-46-J.Dorenbos. 17-D.Harris to NYG 10 for no gain (14-R.Cooper). PENALTY on NYG-33-B.McGee, Offensive Holding, 6 yards, enforced at NYG 10. Penalty on NYG-23-R.Jennings, Illegal Block Above the Waist, declined.

The Three Options

GO -1.85 EP

24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +3.18 EP
76% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 67, worth -3.40 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model