Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 5 at the 74

New York Giants 7 – Philadelphia Eagles 14

What Actually Happened

(4:21) 9-B.Wing punts 44 yards to PHI 30, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, downed by NYG-53-J.Brinkley. PENALTY on PHI-38-E.Biggers, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PHI 30.

The Three Options

GO -1.81 EP

46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.06 EP
54% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 74, worth -4.30 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model