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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 12 at the 57

Philadelphia Eagles 14 – New York Giants 7

What Actually Happened

(2:20) 8-D.Jones punts 57 yards to end zone, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.25 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.84 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 57, worth -2.93 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 17, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model