Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 7 at the 84

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – New York Giants 7

(9:48) 8-D.Jones punts 51 yards to NYG 33, Center-46-J.Dorenbos. 17-D.Harris to NYG 37 for 4 yards (42-C.Maragos).

The Three Options

GO -2.32 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +1.16 EP
59% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 84, worth -4.70 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model