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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 3 at the 73

New York Giants 7 – Philadelphia Eagles 24

What Actually Happened

(13:47) 9-B.Wing punts 46 yards to PHI 27, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 43-D.Sproles to PHI 40 for 13 yards (94-M.Herzlich).

The Three Options

GO -1.50 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.82 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 73, worth -4.31 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.60 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 31, worth -1.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model