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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 4 at the 20

Philadelphia Eagles 24 – New York Giants 7

What Actually Happened

(8:23) 6-C.Sturgis 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +1.55 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.81 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 20, worth -0.77 EP
KICK +1.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.18 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 30, worth -1.17 EP
PUNT -0.11 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model