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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 12 at the 88

Jacksonville Jaguars 27 – Buffalo Bills 10

What Actually Happened

(1:52) 19-B.Anger punts 56 yards to BUF 32, Center-46-C.Tinker. 17-D.Moore to 50 for 18 yards (21-T.Gerhart).

The Three Options

GO -2.87 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +1.03 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 88, worth -4.77 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

PUNT -2.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 46, worth -2.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model