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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 8 at the 8

Buffalo Bills 13 – Jacksonville Jaguars 27

What Actually Happened

(14:52) (Field Goal formation) 2-D.Carpenter 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.

The Three Options

GO +2.21 EP
  • 32% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.26 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 8, worth +0.31 EP
KICK +2.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.32 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21, worth -0.60 EP
PUNT +0.19 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth +0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model