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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 17 at the 83

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(10:14) 19-B.Anger punts 39 yards to BUF 44, Center-46-C.Tinker, downed by JAX-35-D.McCray.

The Three Options

GO -2.89 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.97 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 83, worth -4.73 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -1.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 41, worth -1.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model