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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 1 at the 88

Jacksonville Jaguars 27 – Buffalo Bills 16

What Actually Happened

(7:22) (Punt formation) 19-B.Anger punts 41 yards to BUF 47, Center-46-C.Tinker, fair catch by 17-D.Moore.

The Three Options

GO -1.44 EP
Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 87, worth -0.07 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 88, worth -5.06 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

PUNT -2.76 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 46, worth -2.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.32 EP