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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 2 at the 60

Buffalo Bills 31 – Jacksonville Jaguars 34

What Actually Happened

(:57) (Shotgun) 3-E.Manuel pass incomplete short left to 10-R.Woods (22-A.Colvin).

The Three Options

GO -0.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.05 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 60, worth -1.79 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 19, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model