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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 9 at the 79

New York Giants 7 – Dallas Cowboys 6

What Actually Happened

(5:44) 9-B.Wing punts 51 yards to DAL 28, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, fair catch by 11-C.Beasley.

The Three Options

GO -1.94 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.60 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 79, worth -4.08 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -1.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 36, worth -1.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model