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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 10 at the 29

New York Giants 7 – Dallas Cowboys 13

What Actually Happened

(1:08) 3-J.Brown 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing.

The Three Options

GO +0.80 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.75 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 29, worth -0.90 EP
KICK +1.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.41 EP
  • 28% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 39, worth -1.53 EP
PUNT +0.03 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model