4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 4 at the 44

New York Giants 0 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(10:51) 9-B.Wing punts 44 yards to end zone, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.62 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.61 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 44, worth -1.97 EP
KICK -0.85 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.59 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.50 EP
PUNT +0.17 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 12, worth +0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP