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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 4 at the 53

Dallas Cowboys 3 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(14:15) 6-C.Jones punts 32 yards to NYG 21, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 17-D.Harris.

The Three Options

GO -0.60 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.30 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 53, worth -3.18 EP
KICK -2.32 EP
  • 15% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 85% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -3.03 EP
PUNT -1.05 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 15, worth -1.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP