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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 5 at the 54

New Orleans Saints 27 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(4:10) 6-T.Morstead punts 41 yards to IND 13, Center-47-J.Drescher, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.33 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.80 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 54, worth -2.82 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.49 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 16, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model