Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 12 at the 71

New Orleans Saints 27 – Indianapolis Colts 7

(1:38) 6-T.Morstead punts 53 yards to IND 18, Center-47-J.Drescher. 17-G.Whalen to IND 34 for 16 yards (16-B.Coleman).

The Three Options

GO -2.06 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.03 EP
68% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 71, worth -4.02 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model