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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 2 at the 72

New Orleans Saints 27 – Indianapolis Colts 14

What Actually Happened

(13:26) 6-T.Morstead punts 55 yards to IND 17, Center-47-J.Drescher, fair catch by 17-G.Whalen.

The Three Options

GO -0.74 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.39 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 72, worth -4.22 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.20 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 30, worth -1.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP