Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 5 at the 78

Indianapolis Colts 14 – New Orleans Saints 27

What Actually Happened

(12:38) 1-P.McAfee punts 49 yards to NO 29, Center-45-M.Overton. 23-M.Murphy to NO 39 for 10 yards (51-S.Moore). NO-23-M.Murphy was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO -1.86 EP

48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +0.97 EP
52% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 78, worth -4.41 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model