Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 11 at the 96

Indianapolis Colts 14 – New Orleans Saints 27

(5:14) 1-P.McAfee punts 58 yards to NO 38, Center-45-M.Overton. 23-M.Murphy to NO 43 for 5 yards (51-S.Moore).

The Three Options

GO -3.57 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 85, worth +0.21 EP
63% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 96, worth -5.77 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (113 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model