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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 11 at the 58

New Orleans Saints 27 – Indianapolis Colts 14

What Actually Happened

(4:07) 6-T.Morstead punts 58 yards to end zone, Center-47-J.Drescher, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.02 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.41 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 58, worth -2.65 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 18, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model