4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 6 at the 54

New Orleans Saints 0 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(7:22) 6-T.Morstead punts 37 yards to IND 17, Center-47-J.Drescher, fair catch by 17-G.Whalen. PENALTY on NO-20-B.Dixon, Fair Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at IND 17.

The Three Options

GO -0.83 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.55 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 54, worth -3.20 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.91 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 16, worth -0.91 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model