4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 3 at the 54

New England Patriots 3 – New York Jets 10

What Actually Happened

(11:42) 6-R.Allen punts 46 yards to NYJ 8, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 11-J.Kerley.

The Three Options

GO +0.24 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.93 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 54, worth -2.76 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.62 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 16, worth -0.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.85 EP