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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 2 at the 84

New York Jets 10 – New England Patriots 3

What Actually Happened

(10:02) 3-S.Weatherford punts 31 yards to NYJ 47, Center-46-T.Purdum, downed by NYJ-34-D.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO -1.35 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 82, worth +0.80 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 84, worth -4.94 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -2.42 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 42, worth -2.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.08 EP