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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 1 at the 1

New England Patriots 3 – New York Jets 10

What Actually Happened

(6:26) 62-R.Wendell reported in as eligible. 12-T.Brady up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +4.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.09 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 1, worth +0.46 EP
KICK +2.10 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 21, worth -0.78 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model