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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 1 at the 71

New York Jets 10 – New England Patriots 10

What Actually Happened

(5:00) 3-S.Weatherford punts 47 yards to NE 24, Center-46-T.Purdum. 11-J.Edelman to NE 41 for 17 yards (58-E.Henderson).

The Three Options

GO -0.30 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.25 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 71, worth -4.18 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.44 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 29, worth -1.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.14 EP