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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 15 at the 86

New York Jets 10 – New England Patriots 13

What Actually Happened

(:24) 3-S.Weatherford punts 50 yards to NE 36, Center-46-T.Purdum. 11-J.Edelman to NE 46 for 10 yards (57-T.Reilly).

The Three Options

GO -3.17 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +0.47 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 86, worth -4.74 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

PUNT -1.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 44, worth -1.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model