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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 6 at the 6

New England Patriots 13 – New York Jets 10

What Actually Happened

(11:14) 3-S.Gostkowski 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

The Three Options

GO +2.36 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.27 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 6, worth +0.25 EP
KICK +2.24 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.32 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 21, worth -0.57 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model