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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 7 at the 54

New York Jets 20 – New England Patriots 23

What Actually Happened

(5:39) 3-S.Weatherford punts 33 yards to NE 21, Center-46-T.Purdum. 80-D.Amendola pushed ob at NE 32 for 11 yards (57-T.Reilly).

The Three Options

GO -0.57 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.66 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 54, worth -2.55 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 16, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model