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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 2 at the 2

New York Jets 0 – New England Patriots 3

What Actually Happened

(7:32) 2-N.Folk 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-3-S.Weatherford.

The Three Options

GO +3.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.83 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 2, worth +0.13 EP
KICK +1.83 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 21, worth -1.01 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.27 EP