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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 4 at the 58

New England Patriots 3 – New York Jets 3

What Actually Happened

(5:11) 6-R.Allen punts 41 yards to NYJ 17, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 11-J.Kerley.

The Three Options

GO -0.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.88 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 58, worth -2.87 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.41 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 18, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP