4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 4 at the 14

Las Vegas Raiders 17 – Los Angeles Chargers 3

What Actually Happened

(9:31) 11-S.Janikowski 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King.

The Three Options

GO +1.91 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.13 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 14, worth -0.44 EP
KICK +1.78 EP
What Happened
  • 94% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.97 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 24, worth -1.25 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model