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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 3 at the 85

Los Angeles Chargers 3 – Las Vegas Raiders 20

What Actually Happened

(8:09) 5-M.Scifres punts 43 yards to LV 42, Center-47-M.Windt. 38-T.Carrie to LAC 47 for 11 yards (48-N.Dzubnar).

The Three Options

GO -1.64 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 82, worth +0.74 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 85, worth -4.80 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -2.04 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 43, worth -2.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EP