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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 13 at the 13

Las Vegas Raiders 20 – Los Angeles Chargers 3

What Actually Happened

(4:43) 11-S.Janikowski 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King.

The Three Options

GO +1.20 EP
  • 25% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.11 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 13, worth -0.40 EP
KICK +2.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.17 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 23, worth -0.89 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model